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The Prisons Model

The causal diagram below provides another introductory exercise for developing CLD skills. The CLD is designed to show the counterintuitive policy affects of early release of prisoners from jail. Early release programs are designed to reintegrate prisoners into society and to minimise the time they spend in overcrowded jails. The  potential risk and counterintuitive effect is that these prisoners will reoffend and come back into jail and further exacerbate the problem of overcrowding.


A potential solution is found at this link

The New Product Launch

The next example is a larger and more complex one.  A consumer goods company has an impressive record for new product launches based on the work of a sophisticated and talented marketing department.

The measure of success for product launch had become that the new products would “walk off the shelves” and the “retailers are screaming out for product”.  This resulted in production struggling to keep up with demand, frequent retailer stock-outs and lost sales.

However, the company is concerned that, while the initial product launches are very successful, their competitor frequently enters the market with copycat products and is able to capture significant market share.

This is the BOT of New product sales, inventory and competitor sales.

Click here for a possible solution